Aging infrastructure and home affordability are rising challenges for Florida
For decades, Florida has served as a haven from high-tax, high-cost states -- attracting retirees, snowbirds, hourly workers, and increasingly, younger professionals priced out of other housing markets. From 2021 to 2023, nearly 2.76 million people relocated to the Sunshine State, propelling it to become the third most populous in the nation, according to real estate data firm Cotality. But Florida's reputation as a land of opportunity is being tested by a trio of challenges: rising home prices, eroding affordability, and mounting strain on infrastructure.
"Over the past 25 years, we've seen a significant increase in home prices, insurance premiums, and property taxes in Florida," says Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality. "Add to that the relentless pace of migration, which is putting pressure on public services and inflating costs across sectors, and we're seeing a tipping point. Many families are finding it harder to justify staying in the state."
It's a pattern that echoes California's experience: soaring housing costs, escalating insurance, and aging infrastructure eventually led to a population outflow. Florida, once viewed as a destination for relief and reinvention, is now seeing early signs of the same phenomenon -- a reversal driven by its own explosive growth. This special report by Cotality explores whether Florida's meteoric rise could ultimately sow the seeds of its undoing.
Is Florida Reaching Its Breaking Point?
Dr. Hepp tells The World Property Journal, "The state's steep home price increases, rising insurance premiums, and heightened hurricane risks are making people think twice. We're now seeing residents look toward other Southern states where affordability is more attainable, and economic opportunity is still strong -- the same factors that once made Florida so attractive."
Florida's surging popularity has become a double-edged sword. Its housing market, public infrastructure, and environmental resilience are being put to the test, and signs suggest that its long-standing appeal to homebuyers may be shifting.
Cotality's analysts point to two major risks shaping Florida's housing future: the growing connection between natural disasters, ballooning insurance costs, and dwindling affordability; and the increasing friction between rapid business growth and limited housing availability. Both trends are reshaping Florida's identity as a place to settle down.
The Migration Boom and Florida's Hidden Housing Costs
Florida's population surge hasn't happened in a vacuum -- it's driven by specific migration trends. Cotality's AI-powered data platform, which tracks 99.9% of U.S. residential properties, reveals who's moving to Florida and the ripple effects on local housing, infrastructure, and the economy.
While New York has long been a top source of incoming residents, 2023 saw California contribute 6% of new arrivals -- a notable shift from the West Coast toward Florida's economic and political climate. Georgia, Texas, and New Jersey also ranked among the top five origin states.
But the era of low-cost living that once defined Florida is fading. Newcomers often arrive with significant wealth, driving up home prices and pushing out younger, middle-income buyers. With baby boomers competing for homes using cash, affordability is increasingly out of reach for first-time buyers. Between 2018 and 2022, Cotality's data shows that home sales in Florida surpassed even the peak of the 2005 housing boom -- a sign of intense demand and limited supply.
